An Integrated Risk Assessment Model of Township‐Scaled Land Subsidence Based on an Evidential Reasoning Algorithm and Fuzzy Set Theory

Land subsidence risk assessment (LSRA) is a multi‐attribute decision analysis (MADA) problem and is often characterized by both quantitative and qualitative attributes with various types of uncertainty. Therefore, the problem needs to be modeled and analyzed using methods that can handle uncertainty. In this article, we propose an integrated assessment model based on the evidential reasoning (ER) algorithm and fuzzy set theory. The assessment model is structured as a hierarchical framework that regards land subsidence risk as a composite of two key factors: hazard and vulnerability. These factors can be described by a set of basic indicators defined by assessment grades with attributes for transforming both numerical data and subjective judgments into a belief structure. The factor‐level attributes of hazard and vulnerability are combined using the ER algorithm, which is based on the information from a belief structure calculated by the Dempster‐Shafer (D‐S) theory, and a distributed fuzzy belief structure calculated by fuzzy set theory. The results from the combined algorithms yield distributed assessment grade matrices. The application of the model to the Xixi‐Chengnan area, China, illustrates its usefulness and validity for LSRA. The model utilizes a combination of all types of evidence, including all assessment information—quantitative or qualitative, complete or incomplete, and precise or imprecise—to provide assessment grades that define risk assessment on the basis of hazard and vulnerability. The results will enable risk managers to apply different risk prevention measures and mitigation planning based on the calculated risk states.     

Adaptive information design for outdoor augmented reality

Augmented Reality focuses on the enrichment of the user's natural field of view by consistent integration of text, symbols and interactive three-dimensional objects in real time. Placing virtual objects directly into the user's view in a natural context empowers highly dynamic applications. On the other hand, this necessitates deliberate choice of information design and density, in particular for deployment in hazardous environments like military combat scenarios. As the amount of information needed is not foreseeable and strongly depends on the individual mission, an appropriate system must offer adequate adaptation capabilities. The paper presents a prototypical, vehicle-mountable Augmented Reality vision system, designed for enhancing situation awareness in stressful urban warfare scenarios. Tracking, as one of the most crucial challenges for outdoor Augmented Reality, is accomplished by means of a Differential-GPS approach while the type of display to attach can be modified, ranging from ocular displays to standard LCD mini-screens. The overall concept also includes envisioning of own troops (blue forces), for which a multi-sensor tracking approach has been chosen. As a main feature, the system allows switching between different information categories, focusing on friendly, hostile, unidentified or neutral data. Results of an empirical study on the superiority of an in-view navigation cue approach conclude the paper.     

The Box–Cox Transformation and Non‐Iterative Estimation Methods for Ordinal Log‐Linear Models

Recently Beh and Farver investigated and evaluated three non‐iterative procedures for estimating the linear‐by‐linear parameter of an ordinal log‐linear model. The study demonstrated that these non‐iterative techniques provide estimates that are, for most types of contingency tables, statistically indistinguishable from estimates from Newton's unidimensional algorithm. Here we show how two of these techniques are related using the Box–Cox transformation. We also show that by using this transformation, accurate non‐iterative estimates are achievable even when a contingency table contains sampling zeros.     

Skin lighteners, Black consumers and Jewish entrepreneurs in South Africa

This article considers the rise and decline of South Africa's lucrative and controversial skin-lighteners market through examination of the business history of the largest manufacturers, Abraham and Solomon Krok, and their evolving personas as millionaires and philanthropists. Such examination reveals how the country's skin-lighteners trade emerged as part of the broader growth of a black consumer market after the Second World War and how elements of that market became the target of anti-apartheid protests in subsequent decades. It also demonstrates how the Kroks' experiences as second-generation Jewish immigrants shaped their involvement in the trade and how, later, their self-identification as Jewish philanthropists informed their efforts to rehabilitate their reputations following South Africa's 1990 ban on all skin lighteners. Such efforts include the building of Johannesburg's highly acclaimed Apartheid Museum, modelled after the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum. This article explores the profound ironies that some South Africans see in the fact that a museum dedicated to commemorating those who suffered under and, ultimately, triumphed against state racism was financed by a family fortune generated through the sale of skin lighteners to black consumers.     

Is the Precautionary Principle Really Incoherent?

The Precautionary Principle has been an increasingly important principle in international treaties since the 1980s. Through varying formulations, it states that when an activity can lead to a catastrophe for human health or the environment, measures should be taken to prevent it even if the cause‐and‐effect relationship is not fully established scientifically. The Precautionary Principle has been critically discussed from many sides. This article concentrates on a theoretical argument by Peterson (2006) according to which the Precautionary Principle is incoherent with other desiderata of rational decision making, and thus cannot be used as a decision rule that selects an action among several ones. I claim here that Peterson's argument fails to establish the incoherence of the Precautionary Principle, by attacking three of its premises. I argue (i) that Peterson's treatment of uncertainties lacks generality, (ii) that his Archimedian condition is problematic for incommensurability reasons, and (iii) that his explication of the Precautionary Principle is not adequate. This leads me to conjecture that the Precautionary Principle can be envisaged as a coherent decision rule, again.     

Integrated nested Laplace approximation for the analysis of count data via the combined model: A simulation study

The combined model accounts for different forms of extra-variability and has traditionally been applied in the likelihood framework, or in the Bayesian setting via Markov chain Monte Carlo. In this article, integrated nested Laplace approximation is investigated as an alternative estimation method for the combined model for count data, and compared with the former estimation techniques. Longitudinal, spatial, and multi-hierarchical data scenarios are investigated in three case studies as well as a simulation study. As a conclusion, integrated nested Laplace approximation provides fast and precise estimation, while avoiding convergence problems often seen when using Markov chain Monte Carlo.     

Restoring sanity through comic relief: Parody television viewers and political outlook

Parody news programs regale viewers with satirical, witty, and humorous exposés of the political world and news coverage, but they have also been criticized for creating cynicism and political disengagement. This study found that parody news viewers are self-efficacious and more politically active than viewers of CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, or broadcast television news. Moreover, reliance on parody news shows does not lead to political polarization or government distrust.     

The effect of stress on customer perception of the frontline employee: an experimental study

Review of Managerial Science - This article examines positive effects of customer stress drawn upon the theory of excitation transfer. Contrary to previous marketing and management literature, the...     

Industrial relations and adjustments to the crisis: A comparative micro‐statistical analysis of France and Great Britain

In this comparative study, the authors analyse the relationships between industrial relations and workforce or wage adjustments in response to the 2007–08 crisis, using two highly comparable establishment‐level surveys conducted in Great Britain (WERS) and France (REPONSE) in 2010–12. Notwithstanding contextual differences in the countries’ productive systems and the timing and impact of the crisis, the relationships between industrial relations and adjustment strategies appear to have been similar (trade union presence not preventing adjustments). Differences in industrial relations are therefore not found to provide an explanation for the different modes of adjustment observed at the macroeconomic level.